Libertarians in District 46

To Libertarians:
California Congressional District 46 Analysis and Conclusions

Due to redistricting, you may be new to the 46th Congressional District. You can verify your current district at ocvote.gov, and also verify your registration info is correct. Mail-in ballots arrive around May 9th. The Primary determines the General.

Topics
Why is voting for Ed Rushman so important in the Primary?
Why is this Primary the opportunity to unseat Lou Correa (D)?

Why is voting for me (Ed Rushman) so important in the Primary?
This is a top-two primary with five challengers to the Democrat incumbent. It’s crucial to have an independent survive the Primary.

Neither Party wants to shrink the government. Think about managers you know: do any of them want to have a smaller budget? Fewer people? Being an officeholder in a bigger government feeds the ego.

I’m running to get money and corruption out of politics. We can’t fix the bad politicians but we can show the American people what they could have instead. As government grows, it wants to control and regulate society to a degree the Founders never intended. It’s become a monster that consumes liberty. If “that government governs best which governs least,” then we need to put the government on an aggressive diet. Voting a real independent into Congress would be a start, a shock treatment.

An engineer on some of my projects told me, “you make an elephant easy to eat.” I prioritize efforts to get the most important things done first: what yields the most benefit. Take small bites, but take the best bites first. One of the first tasks will be to identify where we can successfully cut, and then whittle it down aggressively.

None of this can happen if you don’t at least vote for Ed Rushman in the Primary. We need every vote. Tell a friend.

In the next section, we will see why the Republicans can’t get elected in this district. All they can do is block an independent out of the General Election. And we know that if elected, they have no interest in really shrinking government.

Why is this Primary the opportunity to unseat Lou Correa (D)?
District 46 has been solid for the Democratic Party since 1996. Republicans can’t win because Democrats have more than double the voters and the GOP can’t appeal to most independent voters.

Breakdown and election history below:

District 46 voters: 49% Democrat, 22% Republican, 29% no party preference (and others)

Summary: In the previous 11 elections, no Republican has come close to winning in the General Election: the Republican candidate loses by at least 20 points every General Election but 2010:

YearDemGOP
202069%31%
201869%31%
2016100%N/A
201460%40%
201264%36%
201053%39%
200870%25%
200662%38%
200460%40%
200261%35%
200060%35%
District History Table

2022 Candidates and Analysis
The June Primary (vote by mail starts May 9th) determines who will be on the November ballot. 2022 offers unique choices for District 46:

Lou Correa (D) – incumbent – https://ballotpedia.org/Lou_Correa

Mike Ortega (D Socialist) –  https://www.ortegaforcongress.com/ (news article from Orange County Register)

Christopher Gonzales (R) – https://ballotpedia.org/Christopher_Gonzales – Irvine, 2.4% of vote in 2020, District 45

Mike Nguyen (R) – http://mikenguyen4congress.com/

Felix Rocha, Jr. (R) – https://norcalrecord.com/organizations/646590251-committee-to-elect-felix-rocha-jr-to-congress#!

Ed Rushman (independent – no party preference)  – https://congress.rushman.org

  • The incumbent can be expected to get at least 50% of the Primary vote
  • Socialist about 10%
  • Three Republicans will split 30%, not evenly. Mike Nguyen might get up to 20%, though. See 2016 election.
  • Independent about 10% – unless Libertarians and No Party Preference (NPP) voters vote for Ed Rushman in the Primary.

The three Republican candidates have too little support for the General Election and the Socialist is unlikely to win, either. None of these appeal to a broad base.

The independent offers the best chance of unseating the incumbent, provided there is good turnout for Libertarians and independents in the Primary.  If enough Republicans can be convinced of their lost cause and switch to the independent, a win in the General Election is most likely.

The Primary determines the General result. Unless the November ballot has an independent, the incumbent wins again. Given the data and history, only an independent has any chance at all of beating Lou Correa (D).

Do you agree? Post your comments and questions below, and please pass this on if you would like to get the money out and break partisan politics.

Prepared by Ed Rushman, candidate for Congress, 46th District

IG:@RushTheHouse Twitter:@RushTheHouse Facebook:@RushmanForCongress
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Sources: Ballotpedia.org, OC Registrar of Voters

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