Unseat the Incumbent (D)

Due to redistricting, you may be new to the 46th Congressional District. You can verify your current district at ocvote.gov, and also verify your registration info is correct. Mail-in ballots arrive around May 9th. This top-two Primary determines who is in the General Election.

Update from the 2022 Primary

Despite the opportunity presented during 2022 Primary campaign, Republicans overwhelmingly chose to re-elect the Democratic Party incumbent. I met with Republican voters and local party officials before and during the campaign to make it clear that voting Republican in the primary guarantees the congressional seat will remain in Democratic Party hands. Clearly, the GOP has made a compromise: they can’t win here so they settle for an acceptable Democratic Party representative. Most voters just vote the party without really understanding this deal. In person, it seems they get it and say they will vote independent, but perhaps they forget or rethink later and vote Republican. Feel free to post your thoughts on this in the comments.

In November 2022, the Democratic Party incumbent will win again, 70%-30% or possibly 60%-40%, same as the previous elections. And in 2024, Republican voters will vote their party again, preventing an independent from posing a real challenge to the two-party system.

Independent voters? The data for independent voter turnout will be available by August 2022 and will be posted here. Either they preferred the two major parties (again) or else they didn’t vote the office (or at all).

Why is this Primary the opportunity to unseat Lou Correa (D)?
District 46 has been solid for the Democratic Party since 1996. Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 and most independent voters vote for the Democratic Party candidate. This year, there is a solution.

District 46 voters: 49% Democrat, 22% Republican, 29% no party preference (and others)

Summary: In the previous 11 elections, no Republican has come close to winning in the General Election: the Republican candidate loses by at least 20 points every General Election but 2010:

YearDemRep
202069%31%
201869%31%
2016100%N/A
201460%40%
201264%36%
201053%39%
200870%25%
200662%38%
200460%40%
200261%35%
200060%35%
District History Table

2022 Candidates and Analysis
The June Primary (vote by mail starts May 9th) determines who will be on the November ballot. 2022 offers unique choices for District 46:

Christopher Gonzales (R) – Endorsed by the Republican Party https://ballotpedia.org/Christopher_Gonzales, 2.4% of vote in 2020, District 45, doesn’t live in our district, lives in District 47. This is a major disadvantage for November, since the incumbent lives in the district and markets himself as growing up here.

Lou Correa (D) – incumbent – https://ballotpedia.org/Lou_Correa

Mike Ortega (D Socialist) –  https://www.ortegaforcongress.com/ (news article from Orange County Register)

Mike Nguyen (R) – http://mikenguyen4congress.com/

Felix Rocha, Jr. (R) – https://norcalrecord.com/organizations/646590251-committee-to-elect-felix-rocha-jr-to-congress#!

Ed Rushman (independent – no party preference)   https://congress.rushman.org

  • It’s a top-two Primary (link to Secretary of State site) – the General Election can only have two candidates
  • The incumbent can be expected to get at least 50% of the Primary vote
  • Socialist about 10% but OC Register wrote an article that should give a boost. Could be 20%.
  • Three Republicans will split 30%, not evenly and hard to predict. See 2016 election. Easier to beat this election.
  • Independent about 10% – unless Republican and No Party Preference (NPP) voters vote for Ed Rushman (NPP) in the Primary. That’s how to beat the incumbent!

The three Republican candidates have too little support for the General Election and the Socialist is unlikely to win, either. None of these appeal to a broad base, and none have come close in two decades. Comments?

The independent offers the best chance of unseating the incumbent, provided there is good turnout for both Republicans and independents in the Primary.  If enough Republicans can be convinced to vote for the independent in the Primary, a win in the General Election is likely since most will want to vote out the incumbent Democrat, given that this administration has made a mess of the country.

The Primary determines the General result. Unless the November ballot has an independent, the Democrat wins again for sure. Given the data and history, only an independent has any chance at all of beating Lou Correa (D).

Do you agree? Post your comments and questions below, and please pass this on if you would like to unseat the Democratic Party incumbent.

Prepared by Ed Rushman, independent candidate for Congress, 46th District

IG:@RushTheHouse Twitter:@RushTheHouse Facebook:@RushmanForCongress
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Sources: Ballotpedia.org, OC Registrar of Voters

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