Unseat the Incumbent (D)

Due to redistricting, you may be new to the 46th Congressional District. You can verify your current district at ocvote.gov, and also verify your registration info is correct. Mail-in ballots arrive around May 9th. This top-two Primary determines who is in the General Election.

Why is this Primary the opportunity to unseat Lou Correa (D)?
District 46 has been solid for the Democratic Party since 1996. Democrats outnumber Republicans 2:1 and most independent voters vote for the Democratic Party candidate. This year, there is a solution.

District 46 voters: 49% Democrat, 22% Republican, 29% no party preference (and others)

Summary: In the previous 11 elections, no Republican has come close to winning in the General Election: the Republican candidate loses by at least 20 points every General Election but 2010:

YearDemRep
202069%31%
201869%31%
2016100%N/A
201460%40%
201264%36%
201053%39%
200870%25%
200662%38%
200460%40%
200261%35%
200060%35%
District History Table

2022 Candidates and Analysis
The June Primary (vote by mail starts May 9th) determines who will be on the November ballot. 2022 offers unique choices for District 46:

Christopher Gonzales (R) – Endorsed by the Republican Party https://ballotpedia.org/Christopher_Gonzales, 2.4% of vote in 2020, District 45, doesn’t live in our district, lives in District 47. This is a major disadvantage for November, since the incumbent lives in the district and markets himself as growing up here.

Lou Correa (D) – incumbent – https://ballotpedia.org/Lou_Correa

Mike Ortega (D Socialist) –  https://www.ortegaforcongress.com/ (news article from Orange County Register)

Mike Nguyen (R) – http://mikenguyen4congress.com/

Felix Rocha, Jr. (R) – https://norcalrecord.com/organizations/646590251-committee-to-elect-felix-rocha-jr-to-congress#!

Ed Rushman (independent – no party preference)   https://congress.rushman.org

  • It’s a top-two Primary (link to Secretary of State site) – the General Election can only have two candidates
  • The incumbent can be expected to get at least 50% of the Primary vote
  • Socialist about 10% but OC Register wrote an article that should give a boost. Could be 20%.
  • Three Republicans will split 30%, not evenly and hard to predict. See 2016 election. Easier to beat this election.
  • Independent about 10% – unless Republican and No Party Preference (NPP) voters vote for Ed Rushman (NPP) in the Primary. That’s how to beat the incumbent!

The three Republican candidates have too little support for the General Election and the Socialist is unlikely to win, either. None of these appeal to a broad base, and none have come close in two decades. Comments?

The independent offers the best chance of unseating the incumbent, provided there is good turnout for both Republicans and independents in the Primary.  If enough Republicans can be convinced to vote for the independent in the Primary, a win in the General Election is likely since most will want to vote out the incumbent Democrat, given that this administration has made a mess of the country.

The Primary determines the General result. Unless the November ballot has an independent, the Democrat wins again for sure. Given the data and history, only an independent has any chance at all of beating Lou Correa (D).

Do you agree? Post your comments and questions below, and please pass this on if you would like to unseat the Democratic Party incumbent.

Prepared by Ed Rushman, independent candidate for Congress, 46th District

IG:@RushTheHouse Twitter:@RushTheHouse Facebook:@RushmanForCongress
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Sources: Ballotpedia.org, OC Registrar of Voters

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